Rob Reynolds has just posted an interesting piece on the coming LMS Wars. He likens it to be on par with the telecom industry's battle with legacy/enterprise protocols (ATM) vs. upcoming anarchy-driven protocols like IP. (IP is now in the lead, by the way)
The existing LMS industry is analogous to the IT industry, and democratizing tools such as weblogs, wikis, rss, podcasting, etc... are the underdogs.
I think the LMS vendors are smart enough to try to incorporate the best of these tools if they want to survive. Because if they don't, the subversive tools will overtake them very quickly.